Randy Carlyle's Puck Possession Issues Highlighted

The 2013-2014 Toronto Maple Leafs season is officially in the books, and with another late-season collapse comes almost certain drastic change to a team desperately searching for stability.  One of the most probable changes is the firing of Randy Carlyle, who despite ending the Leafs nine-year playoff drought will likely be remembered for having his teams being repeatedly outplayed and being bailed out by exceptional goaltending.

That being outplayed, magnified by poor puck possession ability, is really quite disturbing when you look at the comprehensive numbers of Carlyle as a head coach in the NHL.  Below is a chart I've put together highlighting each of the full seasons Carlyle has had as the head coach of an NHL team, outlining the consequent puck possession abilities (or lack thereof) of each team using shot-based metrics.  Warning: the following table is graphic.  Viewer discretion is advised.

Season	SF/G	SF/G /30	SA/G	SA/G /30	Diff	FF%	FF% /30	CF%	CF% /30
2005-2006	31.5	5th	29.6	13th	+1.9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2006-2007	31.5	7th	27.4	5th	+4.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2007-2008	27.3	25th	28	10th	-0.7	50.4%	14th	50.9%	13th
2008-2009	30.3	15th	30.5	19th	-0.2	50.5%	12th	50.9%	10th
2009-2010	30.1	15th	33.4	29th	-3.3	46.8%	27th	47.3%	26th
2010-2011	28.5	27th	32.3	27th	-3.8	45.1%	29th	44.4%	30th
2012-2013	26.3	28th	32.3	27th	-6.0	44.0%	30th	44.1%	30th
2013-2014	27.9	25th	35.9	30th	-8.0	42.2%	30th	42.9%	30th

  
As you can see, Carlyle really didn't have much of an issue with puck possession in the first half of his career.  His 2007 Anaheim Ducks team that won the Stanley Cup, at least using traditional shot statistics, appears to have been quite good at the puck possession game.  What is concerning is the second half of his career, where in each of his final four seasons his teams were not just bad but horrible in the puck possession game.  As you can see, his team's shot differential has regressed each of the last five seasons and his teams have had particular difficulty limiting shots on goal.  This was highlighted by this season, where his and the Leafs ability to possess the puck was particularly troublesome.  I went back all the way to 1997-1998 when the NHL first started tracking shots and looked to see how many teams were in the same company as Carlyle's Leafs.  Here's what I found:

-Only four teams, the 2002 Thrashers, the 2004 Penguins and Panthers, and the 2008 Thrashers could match the 2014 Leafs in negative shot differential.  The 2002 Thrashers were exceptionally bad, boasting a -11.5 shot differential.  Florida was a -6.8 in 2004, Pittsburgh was a -8.5 in 2004, and Atlanta in 2008 was -8.1.

-As far as shots against go, nobody touched the 2014 Leafs.  Seriously.  Not only did the Leafs allow the most shots on goal in a season of any team since the stat began being tracked, but the only teams even in the vicinity of this team were the 2002 Thrashers (35.5 SA/G), the 2004 and 2006 Panthers (34.5 and 34.8 SA/G respectively), the 2006 Washington Capitals (35.1 SA/G), the Florida Panthers again in 2009 and 2010 (34.7 and 34.1 SA/G respectively), and the 2014 Sabres and Senators who allowed 34.3 and 34.7 shots on goal against per game respectively.

-Likewise, looking back since 2008 when comprehensive Corsi and Fenwick stats first became readily available on the Internet, here are the worst five teams in Corsi and Fenwick:

Five Worst CF% (08-14)	Five Worst FF% (08-14)
2014 Toronto Maple Leafs – 42.9%	2014 Toronto Maple Leafs – 42.2%
2008 Atlanta Thrashers – 42.9%	2008 Atlanta Thrashers – 42.5%
2014 Buffalo Sabres – 43.0%	2014 Buffalo Sabres – 42.6%
2013 Toronto Maple Leafs – 44.1%	2013 Toronto Maple Leafs – 44.0%
2014 Edmonton Oilers – 44.3%	2014 Edmonton Oilers – 44.2%

As you can see, Carlyle's teams appear on the list a combined 4 out of 10 times.

-Teams that are this bad with puck possession don't last long.  Of the teams I've mentioned, here's what's happened to some of the coaches: Atlanta had three coaches in 2002, two in 2008, and had another new one to start the 2008-2009 season.  Florida went through three coaches in 2004 and had another new one to start the 2005-2006 season (Jacques Martin, fired in 2008).  Pittsburgh's Ed Olczyk survived the 2004 season, but was fired mid-05/06.  Washington's Glen Henlon survived long relative to his counterparts, being fired early in the 2007-2008 season (just over a year later).

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What I'm doing with these numbers is in part to yes, criticize Randy Carlyle.  I do recognize that he can't shoulder all the blame, certainly at the end of the day the players have to be held accountable as well.  But at the end of the day, the fact that Carlyle has four seasons of which to back up his status as a very poor puck possession coach is enough to convince me that the problem isn't getting any better under him.  And whether you believe in stats like Corsi or Fenwick or not, I think we can all agree that the Leafs getting outshot by the amount that they have been is not a recipe for success.  My opinion (not exactly revolutionary) is that Carlyle should be fired.  Are the Leafs instantly a good Corsi team with Carlyle gone?  Do they instantly become a playoff team?  I don't know.  What I do know is that the Leafs aren't a good Corsi team with him, and they aren't a playoff team with him.  How much the Leafs need to address other issues like team defense, team toughness, team leadership, or whatever other measurements you want to throw out there I don't know, but I think firing Carlyle is the first step in finding out.  It seems a bit silly, at least in the traditional sense, to say "this coach doesn't have a good Fenwick, fire him!".  And yet, teams that are this bad at puck possession simply don't succeed.  The fact that Carlyle appears to be at first glance the worst puck possession coach of this era is particularly unsettling.  Has Carlyle done a lot of good in his career, and even with the Leafs?  Sure.  But it's time to part ways.  It just is.

Note: Corsi and Fenwick numbers courtesy of Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.  These numbers vary slightly from those on other websites such as ExtraSkater.