Now that the Stanley Cup has been handed out, it's time for trade rumors, draft buzz, and the frenzy of free agency.
That frenzy is particularly interesting to me. While we don't know for sure what names are on the trade market or which team will draft who, we do have a stronger idea of the free agents set to hit the market on July 1st, and we can actually take a stab at quantifying what those free agents might be worth.
That's where the fair contract table comes in. I've put together a table of 50 of the most attractive free agent names and compared each player's production with others around the league. I then averaged out the contracts of players that compare favorably and assigned each potential unrestricted free agent a cap hit and term length. The results aren't a promise of anything. Looking at the table there are certainly some contracts that I would consider either too rich or a great bargain (particularly when considering advanced metrics, which based on history I would guess don't come into play very much in contract negotiation - yet). However, I just wanted to provide a framework for people to get some sense of the contracts that a lot of the upcoming free agents could be looking at. I also wanted to provide a framework to compare what historically would be a fair contract for a given amount of production versus what a player will actually end up getting (Ryan Callahan asking for $6 or 7 million comes to mind).
Now before we get into it, one quick note on age. In the age column, a players age is listed as the age that player will be when the regular season starts next year. Likewise, players that will be 36 or over when the 2014/2015 season start were not considered for this table, as when you are getting into that age group it is especially difficult to determine what sort of term a player might be looking at.
So with that in mind, enjoy:
Player
|
Pos
|
Age
|
Cap
Hit
|
Years
|
Thomas Vanek
|
W
|
30
|
$7,234,259
|
6
|
Andrei Markov
|
D
|
35
|
$6,706,294
|
4
|
Marian Gaborik
|
W
|
32
|
$6,600,000
|
5
|
Paul Stastny
|
C
|
28
|
$6,234,375
|
6
|
Ryan Miller
|
G
|
34
|
$5,400,000
|
4
|
Matt Moulson
|
LW
|
30
|
$5,333,333
|
5
|
Mike Cammalleri
|
F
|
32
|
$5,264,705
|
5
|
Radim Vrbata
|
RW
|
32
|
$5,250,00
|
5
|
Jonas Hiller
|
G
|
32
|
$5,250,000
|
3
|
Ryan Callahan
|
RW
|
29
|
$5,122,727
|
6
|
Mikhail Grabovski
|
C
|
30
|
$4,384,615
|
4
|
Matt Niskanen
|
D
|
27
|
$3,958,333
|
5
|
Jussi Jokinen
|
F
|
31
|
$3,875,000
|
3
|
Derek Roy
|
C
|
31
|
$3,750,000
|
3
|
Milan Michalek
|
LW
|
29
|
$3,666,666
|
3
|
Lee Stempniak
|
RW
|
31
|
$3,562,500
|
2
|
Devin Setoguchi
|
RW
|
27
|
$3,522,222
|
3
|
Brooks Orpik
|
D
|
34
|
$3,495,588
|
3
|
Ron Hainsey
|
D
|
33
|
$3,375,000
|
3
|
David Legwand
|
C
|
34
|
$3,360,000
|
3
|
Ales Hemsky
|
RW
|
31
|
$3,361,111
|
3
|
Olli Jokinen
|
C
|
35
|
$3,250,000
|
2
|
Dave Bolland
|
C
|
28
|
$3,232,142
|
4
|
Kyle Quincey
|
D
|
29
|
$3,200,000
|
4
|
Mason Raymond
|
LW
|
29
|
$3,200,000
|
3
|
Dustin Penner
|
LW
|
32
|
$3,166,666
|
4
|
Brian Gionta
|
RW
|
35
|
$3,153,846
|
3
|
Tom Gilbert
|
D
|
31
|
$3,112,500
|
4
|
Steve Ott
|
F
|
32
|
$3,105,000
|
3
|
Daniel Winnik
|
LW
|
29
|
$2,845,454
|
4
|
Benoit Pouliot
|
LW
|
28
|
$2,750,000
|
4
|
Nikolai Kulemin
|
RW
|
28
|
$2,725,000
|
3
|
Steve Downie
|
RW
|
27
|
$2,650,000
|
3
|
Mark Fayne
|
D
|
27
|
$2,531,250
|
2
|
Anton Stralman
|
D
|
28
|
$2,435,000
|
2
|
Raphael Diaz
|
D
|
29
|
$2,292,857
|
2
|
Dany Heatley
|
W
|
33
|
$2,266,666
|
2
|
Andrej Meszaros
|
D
|
28
|
$2,212,500
|
2
|
David Moss
|
RW
|
32
|
$2,175,000
|
2
|
Leo Komarov
|
W
|
27
|
$1,868,750
|
2
|
Thomas Greiss
|
G
|
28
|
$1,833,333
|
2
|
Marcel Goc
|
C
|
31
|
$1,760,000
|
3
|
Nikita Nikitin
|
D
|
28
|
$1,560,000
|
3
|
Jay McClement
|
C
|
31
|
$1,414,285
|
2
|
Ray Emery
|
G
|
32
|
$1,373,000
|
1
|
Brian Boyle
|
C
|
29
|
$1,327,083
|
2
|
Dominic Moore
|
C
|
34
|
$1,316,666
|
2
|
Jonas Gustavsson
|
G
|
29
|
$1,133,333
|
2
|
Al Montoya
|
G
|
29
|
$1,118,750
|
1
|
Ilya Bryzgalov
|
G
|
34
|
$1,028,111
|
1
|
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