On Letang, Lecavelier, Bolland, Gilbert, and Horcoff

The rumors are really starting to pour in leading up to the NHL draft on Sunday.  Here's a rundown of some of the player possibilities and what I think of them:

Kris Letang
If he can't come to an agreement with the Penguins on a contract extension, Rob Rossi thinks Toronto would be a preferred destination of his.  Apparently, the asking price would be a top prospect, a roster player, and a first round pick.  That's what the price is for every star player on the trading block, but teams never seem to get that much.  We either see deals like Mike Richards/Jeff Carter/Jordan Staal which include a top prospect and a roster player, or deals like Marian Gaborik/Rick Nash/Ilya Kovalchuk/Marian Hossa which include mid-level players/prospects and a first round pick.  If I had to guess, the Leafs package would probably be something like Gardiner/Rielly + Kulemin/Franson.  I think that if you don't believe Rielly or Gardiner can and/or will be as good as Kris Letang is, then you do the deal.  If you do believe they can and will reach that level, then be patient and let them grow from within, and take the advantage of their younger age, cheaper contracts, and the depth that Kulemin/Franson give you.  Either way, its an interesting possibility.  I'd definitely have interest If I were Toronto, since Kris Letang is a star player and star players are what you win Stanley Cups with.

Why I'm In Favour of the Leafs Adding Another Goalie

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been linked with big name goaltenders a lot over the last year.  Those big name goaltenders include Roberto Luongo, Miikka Kiprusoff, and Jonathan Bernier.  While some were in favour of getting Luongo last summer when the Leafs goaltending situation looked murky, most have spoken out against acquiring another big name goaltender since James Reimer re-emerged this season.

Let me start by saying I don't want the Leafs to get Roberto Luongo (because of his contract/age) or Miikka Kiprusoff (because of his recent performance/age).  But I wouldn't mind getting someone with a less binding contract that can play at a high level, like Jonathan Bernier, who the Leafs are reportedly interested in.  That's not because I don't believe in James Reimer (I do), but I am a fan of solidifying our position in net/giving ourselves two very capable goalies because teams that have strong goalie tandems almost always make the playoffs.

A Historical Evaluation of Kerby Rychel

Kerby Rychel, a top prospect for the 2013 NHL Entry Draft this June and a winger for the Windsor Spitfires, is one of just 12 players since 2000 that have had 40 goals in 2 of their first 3 seasons in the OHL. The other 11 players are, in chronological order: Jason Jaspers, Steve Ott, Derek Roy, Greg Chambers, Corey Locke, Patrick O'Sullivan, John Tavares, Steven Stamkos, Cody Hodgson, Taylor Hall, and Christian Thomas.

I took a closer look at comparing their numbers below:

Toronto Maple Leafs Players Pace Over a Full Season

Now that the regular season for the Toronto Maple Leafs is over, I thought it would be interesting to calculate what sort of totals these players were on pace for over the course of a full season.  The math was easy, but I should note that I added 34 games (as thats the amount of games missed due to the lockout this year) to the total games played that the players already had.  For example, if a player such as Phil Kessel played 48 games this season I went off the assumption that he would have played 82 games.  If a player such as Matt Frattin only played 25 games I went off the assumption that he would have played 59 games.  I did this to account for games lost to injury/being a healthy scratch that already occurred in this shortened season, and I think it adds an added degree of realism to some of the numbers.  Also, and this is fairly straightforward, for the ATOI category I just took the ATOI that the player already had this season.  Lastly I should note that, much like my last post, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt (given the extended sample size and regression that can occur over an 82 game season which tends to tinker with pace).  Nonetheless, a lot of these numbers translate pretty fairly with a player's career numbers or projected potential and seem pretty realistic.  But again, they shouldn't be taken too seriously.  Enjoy.

The Chances of Making the Playoffs After 82 Games if You Were in it After 48 Games in the NHL

Now that all sixteen berths in the 2013 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs have been clinched, I think now is an appropriate time to introduce some research I did earlier in the year.

Basically, I wanted to know how often a team that sat in a playoff spot after 48 games also sat in a playoff spot after 82 games.  What I did to try and determine this is go back over the last four seasons (excluding this one) to see where a team sat in the standings after 48 games, and compared that to where they sat after 82 games as well.  A fair criticism of this study would be to say that in an 82 game season, not every team reaches 48 games played at the same time.  This leads to some variability, in that while one team may be playing their 48th game they may be playing a team in their 50th game, which clouds the accuracy of how many points a team would really have if they all finished with 48 games at the same time.  I am not denying this at all.  That is a just criticism of this research.  However, generally speaking, what I'm about to show you serves more as a rough benchmark as to where teams sat after 48 games in previous years.  I would also point out that the 2 or 3 point difference for some teams that may occur given the variability in games played would not be the difference between making and missing the playoffs for most teams.